by The KCM Crew on April 24, 2012 ·
We were recently troubled by the findings of a research paper authored by Julia Isaacs of the Brookings Institute for the organization First Focus which was titled The Ongoing Impact of Foreclosures on Children. In the report, Ms. Isaacs quantified the number of children that have been impacted:

2.3 million children have already lost their homes to foreclosure
3 million additional children are at risk of losing their home

She also noted the four ways foreclosures may affect children negatively:

“First, and most obviously, families receiving foreclosure notices are much more likely to move than other families, and, … children who move frequently do less well in school.

Second, homeowners receiving a foreclosure notice are under a lot of financial and psychological stress, as they struggle to stay in their house, and if that fails, to find a new home quickly…parents under a lot of financial distress sometimes engage in harsher and less supportive parenting, which in turn can lead to negative behaviors on the part of children, making it harder for them to interact well with peers and in school.

Third, foreclosures and housing instability have a negative impact on physical as well as mental health, with studies finding higher rates of non-elective visits to emergency rooms and hospitals in ZIP codes with the highest foreclosure rates, as well as a strong association between housing instability and postponement of needed health care visits and necessary medications.

Finally, because foreclosures are often highly concentrated in certain neighborhoods, children living in or near foreclosed homes may suffer the consequences of living in neighborhoods with more vacant houses, higher crime rates, lower social cohesion, and a lower tax base.”

If you find that you are at risk of foreclosure, know your options. The new National Mortgage Settlement might give you a pathway to stay in your home. You can get information on the opportunities the settlement offers…JUST GOOGLE

However, if you have exhausted all your options and now must decide between a short sale and foreclosure, analyze what is the best decision for you and your family. CHECK OUT A BOOK ON AMAZON called “FRESH START FOR HOMEOWNERS” ($10) written by Jesse Ibanez & Cherie Tiscareno. Both authors are realtors and each has experienced the trauma of foreclosure and short selling. After personally going through this experience themselves and seeing first hand how difficult it was for experienced realtors they joined together to help others facing similar circumstances. Its an easy to understand read and very helpful sorting out an effective strategy in almost any situation. You can even contact Cherie Tiscareno personally for a free confidential consultation by phone. Or contact me @ 650-279-8892


The bay area has been seeing the hottest market in 5 years….yes 5 years! this upswing is occuring in all 9 counties and at the same time. I have even been calling home owners asking them if they are interested in selling….there isn’t enough inventory for the number of buyers out there and home owners may not yet realize it’s a strong “seller”s” market. It all seemed to happen about 6-8 weeks ago as if someone just pulled the switch and everyone got the same idea at the same time. Not only do we see lots of buyers out looking seriously to buy the home they have been thinking about for some time but we see multiple offers everywhere. In Santa clara it was reported there were 51 offers on a modest priced home, in Cupertino 50 offers, San Francisco 38 offers, Palo Alto 38 offers and on and on in almost every community around the bay.
These offers are from buyers who are first timers, investors, move up buyers, move down buyers, buyers who need to relocate.
We see movement at the higher end of the spectrum and we see lots at the lower end where most of the distressed properties are found as either Foreclosure or Short Sale properties. We see the local and national statistics and we know and believe many markets are about ready to be flooded with these distressed properties. Most but not all are at the lower price point. If you are a “seller” you need to talk to me! If you are “buyer” you need to talk to me. This market requires a professional like myself to assess and measure the local market and develop a winning strategy….there is only “one” winner and you can’t expect to do it on your own in this fast paced market…..trust me. Call, Text, or Email Joe Parsons 650-279-8892 joeparsons@apr.com


How to snag the best Giants tickets
San Francisco Business Times by Eric Young, Reporter
Date: Monday, April 16, 2012, 2:54pm PDT – Last Modified: Monday, April 16, 2012, 2:58pm PDT
How to snag the best Giants tickets
Photo by Eric Young
The Giants are selling one of the hottest tickets in town, so fans must work hard to find a deal to get into AT&T Park.
Take as an example how you might see tonight’s game featuring the Giants’ Tim Lincecum (yea!) pitching against the Phillies’ Roy Halladay (boo!).
You could scour websites like SeatGeek, which will show seats starting at $12 for the 7:15 p.m. tilt.
Or you can go straight to the source, buying tickets at sfgiants.com, where a bleacher seat is going for $41.
Or, if you’re one of the lucky folks with a connection to the franchise, you can get a “friends and family” ticket. The club is offering $10 lower box seats and $5 view reserved seats to this select group. To be in this group, you pretty much have to be a friend of someone in the Giants front office or be related to them.

A team spokeswoman said that the club offers the friends/family deal “once in awhile.”

Now those friends/family prices are good. But not the best.

As of early afternoon, Stubhub, which has a deal with all MLB teams, listed a $3 ticket in section 320, which is on the stadium’s highest level almost behind the Giants dugout. (I’ve been up there and it’s not a bad seat at all.)

Eric Young covers law, government and the business of sports for the San Francisco Business Times.


Americans Predict Rents and Home Prices to Increase

by The KCM Crew on April 11, 2012 · 1 comment

We report on Fannie Mae’s Quarterly National Housing Survey every ninety days. Fannie Mae also does a monthly survey covering different aspects of the housing market.

Here are some record numbers we found interesting in Fannie Mae’s March report (emphasis added).

  • Thirty-three percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, the highest level over the past 12 months.
  • The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy rose to 73 percent, the highest level in over a year.
  • Forty-eight percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, the highest number recorded to date.
  • On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 4.1 percent over the next 12 months, the highest number recorded to date.

Doug Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae, capped the report off by stating:

“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes. Americans’ rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month. With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that homeownership is a more compelling housing choice.”


Major Changes to BofA Short Sale Process
Effective April 13
Impacts Both New and Existing Files

  • Why      changes are being made, and how      they will impact agents
  • The new timeframe to submit      a backup offer when a buyer has walked … or risk starting all over again
  • The five crucial documents now      required for short sales initiated with an offer
  • What      happens to your existing      short sale file if you fail to comply with the new requirements
  • PLUS —      Helpful tips for getting through a short sale when the owners are in the      midst of a divorce!

IS HOUSING REALLY RECOVERING?

Posted on Apr 6 - Filed Under Featured | Leave a Comment


Is the Housing Market Actually Recovering?

by The KCM Crew on March 13, 2012 · 6 comments

Everyone wants to know if the housing market is truly showing signs of a recovery. There are conflicting headlines every day. One day, we hear sales are up. The next day it is reported that prices are down. Is the real estate market coming back? The answer is ‘yes’ and ‘no’.

There are two aspects that must be evaluated: house sales and house prices. They will not recover at the same time. Sales are already increasing rather nicely while prices will still soften in many markets through 2012.

Home Sales

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) issues a Pending Home Sales Report each month. We can see by the graph below that sales have been increasing nicely over the last twelve months. Real estate professionals across the country are reporting that activity has increased compared to last year. The sales side of the recovery is starting to show great promise.

Home Prices

Many price indices have shown that national home prices are continuing to stumble. Even with demand increasing, we must look at where the supply of housing stock stands. Though ‘visible’ inventory (homes currently on the market) is shrinking, there is still a large overhang of ‘shadow’ inventory (foreclosures about to come to market as a result of the National Mortgage Settlement). This increase in inventory will outpace the increase in demand and thereby cause prices to continue to soften in many parts of the country.

Bottom Line

Housing is coming back. However, sales will come back before prices. We will not see prices appreciate until we work through the oversupply of homes on the market.


Housing Market: About to SPRING Back

by THE KCM CREW on APRIL 2, 2012 · 0 COMMENTS

We believe that 2012 will be the year that home sales start to climb again. Over the past thirty days, more and more experts are saying the same thing.

Jamie DimonJPMorgan Chase CEO

“I believe we’re very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green… You could come up with a pretty bullish case (for housing).

Frank NothaftFreddie Mac chief economist

“Even the housing market is showing some signs of shaking off the depression-like conditions that have plagued it for much of the past few years.”

Goldman Sachs Group

“Stabilization in U.S. housing fundamentals is creating an attractive investment opportunity. Many of the ingredients are in place for continued improvement in housing.”

Lawrence YunNAR chief economist

“If activity is sustained near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in five years. Based on all of the factors in the current market, that’s what we’re expecting with sales rising 7 to 10 percent in 2012.”


Spring is the time of year when buyers awake from the winter slumber of the holidays and snowfall, and go on their pilgrimage to look for new housing. Houses look better in Spring with green grass, blooming trees, and flowers.

Plus, buyers who find a home in the next 60 days can close after the school year ends and enjoy the summer months in their new backyards. It’s almost a rite of passage; baseball teams go to spring training, buyers go look at homes, and the birds fly back north.

But this Spring is different than those of recent memory…

  • Because of the warm weather we experienced here in the Northeast for most of this past winter buyers have been out for months – making offers and buying homes.
  • Many sellers have finally come to understand that they need to have a compelling price on their home to attract buyers. The days of listing your home and negotiating down are over because there are homes on the market already priced correctly, and those are the homes that buyers are going to. The overpriced inventory doesn’t even get their chance to negotiate down.
  • Rates have ticked up as economic news (like unemployment numbers) has improved. That, coupled with rising mortgage insurance premiums and guarantee fees, seems to have given some sense of urgency to buyers.
  • The looming shadow inventory, which most certainly will keep downward pressure on home prices (when added to easier short sale approvals), has tended to encourage home sellers to be more realistic in their expectations.
  • The abundance of information available to consumers has further increased their need for sound advice from top-notch real estate and mortgage professionals. The cream is certainly rising to the top in those professions.

Low interest rates, a tremendous selection to choose from, and the seasonality of it all makes for an exciting next 60-90 days. My advice to anyone looking to buy or sell is that waiting to be aggressive could be a fatal mistake if you hope to find the best deal. From my experience, the best deals come when more people are competing for them…and that time is NOW!

By Dean Hartman     March 22, 2012     The KMC Blog


Rents Rising as Rental Availability Shrinks

by THE KCM CREW on MARCH 21, 2012 · 0 COMMENTS

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  • Because of the challenges in the current economy, many families have either decided to rent or been forced to rent. How has this impacted rental options and the cost of the available options?

HousingWire recently quoted Paul Dales, senior economist with Capital Economics:

“As a consequence of Americans being less willing and less able to buy a home, the number of households in rented accommodation is set to rise by at least 850,000 a year over the next few years.”

The price of anything is determined by supply and demand. As demand increases, the price of an item will increase unless there is an equal increase in supply. The article mentioned above said:

“Dales said in his research that rental vacancy rates will fall again in the future, pushing prices up. The median rent is already up to $712 per month—well above the average monthly mortgage cost of $647, Dales reported.

He estimates vacancies in the home-rental market will push average rental rates up as much as 5% by early 2013.”

How many markets will be impacted? A new rent index offered by Zillow:

“…showed year-over-year gains for 69.2 percent of metropolitan areas covered.”

Bottom Line

Rents are increasing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In many parts of the country, buying a home might make more sense as you can lock in your housing expense for the next thirty years.


Warren Buffett: It’s Time to Buy Real EstateWarren Buffett appeared live on CNBC’s Squawk Box this week. [end of Feb 2012] During the interview, he was asked about the current real estate market and whether he felt now was the time to buy. His response was rather emphatic and has been used as a headline in hundreds of articles since the interview:“If I had a way of buying a couple hundred thousand single-family homes I would load up on them.”However, throughout the interview, he addressed the market from a few angles. Here is what he said:

Why invest in real estate now?  “It’s a way, in effect, to short the dollar because you can take a 30-year mortgage and if it turns out your interest rate’s too high, next week you refinance lower. And if it turns out it’s too low, the other guy’s stuck with it for 30 years. So it’s a very attractive asset class now.”

Is buying your own home better than investing in stocks right now?

“If I knew where I was going to want to live the next five or 10 years I would buy a home and I’d finance it with a 30-year mortgage… It’s a terrific deal.”

Should we buy multiple houses?

“If I was an investor that was a handy type and I could buy a couple of them at distressed prices and find renters, I think it’s a leveraged way of owning a very cheap asset now and I think that’s probably as an attractive an investment as you can make now.”

Over the last couple of months, there have been more and more financial analysts coming to the same conclusion: It’s time to buy real estate.

Chris Thornberg: is a former UCLA economist and a founding principal of Beacon Economics

2012 -“Even if you’ve been thinking about buying a condo in Vegas or buying a condo in Miami, buy now. Now is a great time to buy a home.”

John R. Talbott:  When the Prophet Says Buy – BUY!   John R. Talbott, previously a Goldman Sachs investment banker, is a bestselling author and economic consultant. When it comes to the housing market he is also a prophet. When housing prices started to skyrocket in 2003, he published The Coming Crash in the Housing Market correctly warning us that a real estate bubble was forming. Then in January 2006, he called the absolute peak of home prices in the US by releasing a new book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble.

Mr. Talbott, the person who accurately predicted the housing bubble and its bust, now has a new prediction – IT IS THE TIME TO BUY A HOME! In a recent article, Homes – Buy Now!, Talbott simply explains:

“I have been waiting for more than five years to offer this advice. It is now time in most cities across the country to buy a new home or refinance your existing home with thirty-year fixed rate mortgage debt.”

He goes on to explain that his conclusion is based on four different metrics, all of which favor buying today:

■Home Prices Relative to Peak Prices During the Bubble

■Home Prices Relative to Construction Costs or Replacement Costs

■Home Prices Relative to Incomes and Rents

■Home Prices in Real Terms, Not US Dollar Terms

Bottom Line, If the person who called the real estate bubble and its bust says now is the time to buy, we believe it is time to buy.

CHECK OUT MY SITE:  HTTP://WWW.BAY-AREA-REO.COM  for some helpful hints on where to buy right now!

 

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